@article {Aschwanden2019, title = {{Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium}}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, year = {2019}, month = {jun}, pages = {eaav9396}, abstract = {The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier{\textendash}resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland{\textquoteright}s contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45\% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.}, issn = {2375-2548}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aav9396}, url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396}, author = {Aschwanden, Andy and Fahnestock, Mark A. and Truffer, Martin and Brinkerhoff, Douglas J. and Hock, Regine and Khroulev, Constantine and Mottram, Ruth and Khan, S. Abbas} } @article {Roth2018, title = {{Modeling Winter Precipitation Over the Juneau Icefield, Alaska, Using a Linear Model of Orographic Precipitation}}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {6}, number = {March}, year = {2018}, month = {mar}, pages = {1{\textendash}19}, keywords = {Alaska, downscaling, glacier mass balance, Juneau Icefield, Modeling, orographic precipitation, snow accumulation}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2018.00020}, url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2018.00020/full}, author = {Roth, Aurora and Hock, Regine and Schuler, Thomas V. and Bieniek, Peter A. and Pelto, Mauri and Aschwanden, Andy} } @article {312, title = {Glacier Changes in the Susitna Basin, Alaska, USA,(1951{\textendash}2015) using GIS and Remote Sensing Methods}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {9}, year = {2017}, pages = {478}, author = {Wastlhuber, Roland and Hock, Regine and Kienholz, Christian and Braun, Matthias} } @article {310, title = {Grand Challenges in Cryospheric Sciences: Toward Better Predictability of Glaciers, Snow and Sea Ice}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {5}, year = {2017}, pages = {64}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2017.00064}, url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2017.00064}, author = {Hock, Regine and Hutchings, Jennifer K. and Lehning, Michael} } @article {311, title = {Mass Balance Evolution of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, 1980{\textendash}2100, and Its Implications for Surge Recurrence}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {5}, year = {2017}, pages = {56}, abstract = {Surge-type Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, has undergone strong retreat since it last surged in 1936-37. To assess its evolution during the late 20th and 21st centuries and determine potential implications for surge likelihood, we run a simplified glacier model over the periods 1980-2015 (hindcasting) and 2015-2100 (forecasting). The model is forced by daily temperature and precipitation fields, with downscaled reanalysis data used for the hindcasting. A constant climate scenario and an RCP 8.5 scenario based on the GFDL-CM3 climate model are employed for the forecasting. Debris evolution is accounted for by a debris layer time series derived from satellite imagery (hindcasting) and a parametrized debris evolution model (forecasting). A retreat model accounts for the evolution of the glacier geometry. Model calibration, validation and parametrization rely on an extensive set of in situ and remotely sensed observations. To explore uncertainties in our projections, we run the glacier model in a Monte Carlo fashion, varying key model parameters and input data within plausible ranges. Our results for the hindcasting period indicate a negative mass balance trend, caused by atmospheric warming in the summer, precipitation decrease in the winter and surface elevation lowering (climate-elevation feedback), which exceed the moderating effects from increasing debris cover and glacier retreat. Without the 2002 rockslide deposits on Black Rapids{\textquoteright} lower reaches, the mass balances would be more negative, by ~20\% between the 2003 and 2015 mass-balance years. Despite its retreat, Black Rapids Glacier is substantially out of balance with the current climate. By 2100, ~8\% of Black Rapids{\textquoteright} 1980 area are projected to vanish under the constant climate scenario and ~73\% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. For both scenarios, the remaining glacier portions are out of balance, suggesting continued retreat after 2100. Due to mass starvation, a surge in the 21st century is unlikely. The projected retreat will affect the glacier{\textquoteright}s runoff and change the landscape in the Black Rapids area markedly.}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2017.00056}, url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2017.00056}, author = {Kienholz, Christian and Hock, Regine and Truffer, Martin and Bieniek, Peter and Lader, Richard} } @article {309, title = {Modeling the evolution of the Juneau Icefield between 1971 and 2100 using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)}, journal = {Journal of Glaciology}, volume = {62}, year = {2016}, pages = {199{\textendash}214}, author = {Ziemen, Florian A and Hock, Regine and Aschwanden, Andy and Khroulev, Constantine and Kienholz, Christian and MELKONIAN, ANDREW and ZHANG, JING} } @article {300, title = {A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {3}, year = {2015}, pages = {54}, abstract = {The anticipated retreat of glaciers around the globe will pose far-reaching challenges to the management of fresh water resources and significantly contribute to sea-level rise within the coming decades. Here, we present a new model for calculating the 21st century mass changes of all glaciers on Earth outside the ice sheets. The Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) includes mass loss due to frontal ablation at marine-terminating glacier fronts and accounts for glacier advance/retreat and surface Elevation changes. Simulations are driven with monthly near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 14 Global Circulation Models forced by the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Depending on the scenario, the model yields a global glacier volume loss of 25-48\% between 2010 and 2100. For calculating glacier contribution to sea-level rise, we account for ice located below sea-level presently displacing ocean water. This effect reduces glacier contribution by 11-14\%, so that our model predicts a sea-level equivalent (multi-model mean +-1 standard deviation) of 79+-24 mm (RCP2.6), 108+-28 mm (RCP4.5) and 157+-31 mm (RCP8.5). Mass losses by frontal ablation account for 10\% of total ablation globally, and up to 30\% regionally. Regional equilibrium line altitudes are projected to rise by 100-800 m until 2100, but the effect on ice wastage depends on initial glacier hypsometries.}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2015.00054}, url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2015.00054}, author = {Huss, Matthias and Hock, Regine} } @article {Das2014, title = {{21st-century increase in glacier mass loss in the Wrangell Mountains, Alaska, USA, from airborne laser altimetry and satellite stereo imagery}}, journal = {J. Glaciol.}, volume = {60}, number = {220}, year = {2014}, pages = {283{\textendash}293}, keywords = {glacier mass balance, ice and climate}, issn = {00221430}, doi = {10.3189/2014JoG13J119}, url = {http://www.igsoc.org/journal/60/220/j13J119.html}, author = {Das, Indrani and Hock, Regine and Berthier, Etienne and Lingle, Craig S.} } @article {259, title = {Glaciers in the Earth{\textquoteright}s Hydrological Cycle: Assessments of Glacier Mass and Runoff Changes on Global and Regional Scales}, journal = {Surveys in Geophysics}, volume = {35}, year = {2014}, pages = {813-837}, keywords = {Glacier projections, glacier runoff, glaciers, mass balance, Mass-balance observations, Modeling, Sea-level rise}, issn = {0169-3298}, doi = {10.1007/s10712-013-9262-y}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-013-9262-y}, author = {Radi{\'c}, Valentina and Hock, Regine} } @article {257, title = {Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first century climate change}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface}, volume = {119}, year = {2014}, pages = {717{\textendash}730}, keywords = {climate change, glacier mass balance, glacier runoff}, issn = {2169-9011}, doi = {10.1002/2013JF002931}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013JF002931}, author = {Bliss, Andrew and Hock, Regine and Radi{\'c}, Valentina} } @article {383, title = {Glaciers and Climate of the Upper Susitna Basin, Alaska}, author = {Bliss, Andrew and Hock, Regine and Wolken, Gabriel and Whorton, Erin and Aubry-Wake, Caroline and Braun, Juliana and Gusmeroli, Alessio and Harrison, Will and Hoffman, Andrew and Liljedahl, Anna and others} }